Dispatches
Research, observations, rabbit holes, and the occasional bad idea that survived review.
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The 10-Year Just Hit 5%. Your Mortgage Is Paying Attention.
The 10-year Treasury just crossed 5%. That sounds like something only bond traders should care about. Unfortunately, your mortgage, business loan, federal budget, and a fair piece of the economy are paying attention.
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We Built a Model Because “The Economy Feels Weird” Is Not a Measurement System
The economy can look healthy in one statistic and fragile in another. We’re building a model to measure vulnerability, shocks, transmission and—most importantly—how much ability the system still has to respond before several manageable problems become one very unmanageable one.