Dispatches
Research, observations, rabbit holes, and the occasional bad idea that survived review.
Stay in the Rabbit Hole
Get an email when a new Dispatch drops. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
-
The 10-Year Just Hit 5%. Your Mortgage Is Paying Attention.
The 10-year Treasury just crossed 5%. That sounds like something only bond traders should care about. Unfortunately, your mortgage, business loan, federal budget, and a fair piece of the economy are paying attention.
-
How a Bill Goes to Washington to Die
Congress has developed an impressive number of places where legislation can quietly die. If we want to understand whether government can actually govern, we need to stop counting only what passes and start asking where the machine stopped—and who had the wrench.
-
The CPI Says You’re Fine. Your Mortgage Would Like a Word.
Every month somebody announces that inflation is up, down, improving, sticky, transitory, stubborn, cooling, reheating, or apparently doing yoga. Then you look at your mortgage payment, rent, electric bill, insurance, groceries, and car payment and wonder whether the economists are measuring the same country you live in. They are. Sort of. The Problem With the…
-
We Built a Model Because “The Economy Feels Weird” Is Not a Measurement System
The economy can look healthy in one statistic and fragile in another. We’re building a model to measure vulnerability, shocks, transmission and—most importantly—how much ability the system still has to respond before several manageable problems become one very unmanageable one.
-
The Constitution Wasn’t Written for Push Notifications
The Constitution has survived more than two centuries because its core principles are durable. But it was designed for a world without nuclear weapons, social media, administrative government, AI, or instant political pressure. The question is not whether the founders were wrong. It is whether the machinery still protects the principles they were trying to…
-
Welcome to the Rabbit Hole. Please Keep Your Hands Inside the Spreadsheet.
Most research projects begin with a research question. Ours generally begin with Dave saying, “I was just wondering…” Then Morgan gets interested, Claude disappears into an archive, Monkey starts calculating, Earnest says “That’s stupid,” and somewhere along the way another spreadsheet achieves consciousness.