The economy is rarely simply “good” or “bad.”
What matters is where stress is building, what it can reach, and how much room remains to respond.
We’re building a historical, source-verified model to measure exactly that.
Current status: Calibration in progress.
No fake precision. No mystery algorithm. When the meter moves, we intend to show you why.
We’re testing it against major historical stress periods—including inflation shocks, market crashes, banking crises, the financial crisis, the pandemic, and periods when frightening events did not become systemic crises.
A model that only recognizes disasters after we tell it which years were disasters isn’t much of a model.
What We’re Actually Trying to Do
We are not trying to predict the next crisis. We are trying to measure how much trouble the next surprise would find when it arrives.
A shock does not become a crisis simply because it is dramatic.
What matters is the condition of the system when the shock arrives, what other parts of the economy it can reach, and how much capacity remains to respond.
That is why our model separates three things:
Vulnerability — What was fragile before anything happened?
Shock — What is actually going wrong now?
Response Capacity — How much ability remains to contain it?
What We’ll Show You
Stress
What is already under pressure?
Matches
Where could one problem ignite another?
Fire Extinguishers
What defenses are still available?
Degrees of Freedom
How many useful choices remain without making another problem worse?
History Gets a Vote
We backtest the model against both crises and false alarms, using only information that would actually have been available at the time.
When historical data are incomplete, we reduce confidence rather than pretend certainty.
Eventually this page will answer three questions every time the reading changes:
Every movement in the meter will come with a receipt:
What changed. Why it mattered. How confident we are.
If we can’t explain the movement, the model isn’t ready for the public.